Much has been written about the ‘death of 60/40’ portfolios and of the bond bull market, generally speaking. Setting aside what I think MIGHT happen into the future for a moment, market performance thus far in 2021 has put an exclamation point on some of the more popular bond bearish arguments and there is NO […]
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Traders TEST Central Banks
Some bond market participants have taken matters into their own hands and are testing global central bankers. Rates are rising in such a way that is in ‘direct conflict’ with global central banking policies of low rates. The narrative which continues to be repeated until it is believed is that rates are UP as a […]
Read More ›10yr Treasury hits 1.30% and the bond market selloff hits PAUSE. Here’s what is next.
With equities at or near all time highs and Treasury yields climbing for a variety of reasons (economic data being impacted by fiscal stimulus along with misplaced HOPE of inflation), it is easy to consider Treasury bonds ‘dead money’. Treasury yields are becoming more attractive on a global scale and at time of the month […]
Read More ›US Junk Bond Yields Drop Below 4% for the First Time EVER
Another day, another record milestone comes and goes with little notice. While many investors are distracted by things like BITCOIN, chasing someone elses short-term adventures, I thought it worthwhile to commemorate the day in risk-taking from a bond market lense. To do so, I’ll turn TO a Bloomberg.com story and CHART: U.S. Junk-Bond Yields Drop […]
Read More ›A Look Back and A Look AHEAD
It has been said that to know where you are going, you must know where you’ve been. It is with THAT in mind, I’d like to make a couple quick comments. On November 2nd, BEFORE THE election, I sent in a note to Etico Partners institutional clients and said the following: …The die is cast […]
Read More ›Q3 Investor Letter
The third quarter finished strongly after a rocky three week stretch in September. The S&P was up 8.47% (click HERE to see sectoral breakdown) adding to a record second quarter bouncing off of the Q1s 20% (click HERE to see sectoral breakdown) draw down. Technology, healthcare, consumer staples and basis materials have lead the market […]
Read More ›The Wealth Effect
This morning I would like to take a moment and offer some updated context for what many are (hopefully)experiencing. Perhaps you’ve heard of the concept known as The Wealth Effect. Here’s a definition from Investopedia: Jun 26, 2019 – The wealth effect is a behavioral economic theory suggesting that people spend more as the value […]
Read More ›Lehman Brothers
The traditional 12th anniversary gifts are silk and linen. The modern 12th anniversary present is pearls. Today happens to be the 12th anniversary of what is STILL the largest bankruptcy filing EVER. This is an excerpt from History.com …Out of options, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy early on the morning of September 15. The firm declared […]
Read More ›Stocks vs. Bonds
I thought it might be helpful to put the recent equity moves into some BOND context. Here is a RATIO of SPY vs TLT. These are a couple of the most popular ETFs which track large cap stocks as well as long duration fixed income. Hopefully it’s true what they say and a picture is […]
Read More ›Bonds are DEAD! Long live BONDS! 60/40 To Become 45/45/10?
I would like to take a moment and discuss bonds as a part of typical portfolio creation. Much has been written about how low (US Treasury)rates are and that means they are of little value when hedging overall portfolio risks. There has been much discussion in financial media lately whether or not the typical ‘diversified’ […]
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